Ethylene market supply will be driven by steam cracking output in the future.
industry consultants and analysts said at the Asian petrochemical industry conference held in Seoul, South Korea that by 2020, more than 95% of the global ethylene supply will come from steam cracking units. Despite the rapid emergence of new raw material sources to meet the dual requirements of automotive lightweight and safety development, the global ethylene market supply before 2020 is still mainly driven by the traditional steam cracking output
industry insiders said that in addition to steam cracking, other rapidly growing ethylene production will come from China's methanol to olefin and coal to olefin (mto/cto). However, mto/cto may be at risk in the future, because the decline in crude oil prices has narrowed the price gap between coal and oil. On the other hand, the methanol expansion project in the United States has been canceled or postponed, and China's mto/cto project may lack imported methanol raw materials
equivalent to saving 8.4 million tons of oil, saving more than 12 million tons of standard coal, and reducing nearly 30 million tons of carbon dioxide According to the latest research report released by wood Mackenzie, the cost advantage of ethane cracking over naphtha cracking in the United States has fallen from $800/ton in 2013 and 2014 to $200/ton, a decrease of 3/4, due to the sharp fall in oil prices in the past few months. In this situation, enterprises should carefully consider whether it is intuitive in North America; The experimental data and marked forms can be automatically reported and printed. A new ethane cracking unit will be built in the region. However, the company also predicts that by 2020, the crude oil price will gradually rise to the "normal price" of $100/barrel, which will cause the ethylene production cost in Europe and Asia to be at a high level, making the U.S. ethane cracking play a driving role relative to naphtha, and the cost advantage of oil cracking will rise to $340/ton
the research reports of other companies are more optimistic. They believe that the cost advantage of ethane cracking is still stable, and with the recovery of oil prices in the future, the cost advantage of ethane cracking will be more obvious. IHS research shows that in the next decade, 40 steam cracking units will be built worldwide to meet the demand for olefins
ExxonMobil Chemical Company predicts that compared with the rest of the world, ethane cracking units in North America still have a competitive advantage, and the global demand for natural gas condensate (NGL) will increase by 125% by 2040, while the demand for naphtha will only increase by 70%
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